Guys from Northwestern University developed a computational model to predict s spread of swine flue.

At the heart of simulation commuter patterns and air traffic. Some data on face to face transactions are taken from "where's George", a web site tracking dollar bills
Some numbers
the typical flu has a reproductive number of 1.7 to 2.8
the number of cases doubles every 2.3 days
“You could have a student transmitting to 15 others, while the average in Queens is 0.1